Half-Cocked

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October 31, 2004

Optimism

I'm updating my EV prediction based on some recent information about new registrations, party ID and new polls.

I'm now saying Kerry: 309, Bush: 229. I moved IA into Bush's column and put New Mexico and Nevada in Kerry's. Democratic registration is far outpacing the competition in NM and NV plus those are two states that have a fairly good chance of giving Badnarik a couple percent. He was polling at around 5% in NM earlier this summer. None of the recent tracking polls offer Badnarik as a choice.

Posted by Half-Cocked at October 31, 2004 01:45 AM

Comments

Whoa. You're even more optimistic than I am. I gave Kerry 294.

Posted by: ambimb at October 31, 2004 11:54 AM