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January 21, 2005
Finally some Fearless Football picks
I ended up 23-15-1 against the spread picking college football this year on this weblog. Not too shabby and it would have been better if I'd gotten around to posting my bowl picks. Oh, well. I guess I'll put my career as a football handicapper on hold for another year, but only after I pick the winners, against the spread, of the two NFL playoff games this Sunday.
New England -3 at Pittsburgh - No other coach in the league can hold Bill Belichick's clipboard. Sure, the Steelers crushed the Patriots earlier this year, but it was right after some tough injuries hit the Patriots. Cory Dillon is back now and the loss of Ty Law has been dealt with. The Patriots are going to make Ben Roethlisberger try and win the game and even if the Steelers go to the four wide-out set I've been hearing about, it's still going to be up to Ben to get the ball to the receivers. Meanwhile, the Patriots will eat clock on offense putting even more pressure on Ben.
Atlanta +5 at Philadelphia - The common wisdom (CW) seems to be that the foot of snow Philadelphia is supposed to get this weekend will hurt Atlanta because they're a dome team. The CW is ignoring a couple of important facts. Atlanta, in Michael Vick's first year as a starter, won a playoff game at Green Bay in the middle of a snow storm. Also, Atlanta is built better for playing in a game like this.
First, there's Philadelphia's offense. Without T.O. the Iggles are where they were last year offensively, when they lost to the Panthers in the NFC championship game. Given the presence of lots of snow and cold, the Philly receivers will most likely disappear. The running game won't fare much better. Brian Westbrook isn't the kind of guy who can carry the ball 30 times and make an impact. Plus, the Atlanta defense is head and shoulders above what Philly faced last week against Minnesota.
Another part of the CW says that Vick won't be able to run like he does in the Georgia Dome due to the slippery conditions. That might be true but Vick has an advantage. He knows where he's going. The Eagles defense doesn't. Vick won a hell of a lot of games in Blacksburg, VA, which isn't exactly Laguna Beach and he ran all over the Packers in that game three years ago. Also, if the game comes down to who can drive the ball down the field four yards at a time, the Falcons have the advantage with T.J. Duckett in the backfield.
My Super Bowl prediction, therefore, is New England vs. Atlanta, with no Mickey Rooney asses.
Posted by Half-Cocked at January 21, 2005 06:38 PM